Revealed: Top ten Tory MPs at risk from Blue Wall backlash at local elections

Analysis has revealed the top ten Conservative MPs at risk following the Liberal Democrat surge at the local elections.

The “Blue Wall backlash” would see the likes of Hitchin and Harpenden MP Bim Afolami and Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab lose their seats at the next General Election.

The Lib Dems won an incredible 50 of the 56 seats on St Albans District Council

The analysis is based on what would happen if the share of the vote within each constituency at Thursday's local elections was replicated in a general election. It comes as Dominic Raab admitted on Sky's Ridge on Sunday he's facing a "tough fight" to hold his seat of Esher and Walton when asked about the threat posed by the Liberal Democrats. The analysis suggests that the party would take the constituency with 39.8% of the vote.

Sam Collins, Liberal Democrat Parliamentary Candidate for Hitchin and Harpenden, said:

"People have seen that the Liberal Democrats really work hard for those that they represent, while the Conservative Party takes people around here for granted. The local elections were a complete and comprehensive rejection of the Tories in Hitchin & Harpenden. People are fed up of Boris Johnson, Bim Afolami and the rest of them, nationally and locally. Local residents here know that the Lib Dems will always put our area and the people who live here first and that is why we have seen such stunning results. It will continue at the General Election".

Liberal Democrat Deputy Leader Daisy Cooper MP said:

"These elections are the clearest warning shot yet to Conservative MPs across the Blue Wall who are seeing their vote crumble before their eyes.

"Having a law-breaking Prime Minister and a tax-raising Chancellor at the helm - sitting on their hands while families struggle with the cost of living emergency - has left many Tory Ministers sitting very uncomfortably indeed.

"Former lifelong Conservative voters who are fed up of being ignored are turning to the Liberal Democrats and our offer of a fair deal in their droves in a Blue Wall backlash.

"Make no mistake, we are putting those MPs who have taken their constituents for granted for far too long on notice."


The ten Tories in trouble as forecast by the analysis are:

  1. Mary Robinson (Cheadle)
  2. William Wragg (Hazel Grove)
  3. Dominic Raab (Esher and Walton)
  4. Stephen Hammond (Wimbledon)
  5. John Redwood (Wokingham)
  6. Alex Chalk (Cheltenham)
  7. Steve Brine (Winchester)
  8. Elliott Colburn (Carshalton & Wallington)
  9. Andrew Jones (Harrogate & Knaresborough)
  10. Bim Afolami (Hitchin and Harpenden)

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